Holy Roman Empire

Dumbledore glanced briefly through the documents, then set them down with a cold sneer, “Sir, such an obvious attempt at sowing discord is embarrassingly crude. Everyone knows we are allies with Austria. Why would we fear an Austrian threat? Just based on this information?”

The French government was, of course, not oblivious to the Austrian threat and the intelligence Geoffrey Friedman presented was not new to Dumbledore.

The data differed in some details but that was typical. Across nations, intelligence about rivals was often “embellished” due to political or personal agendas.

In Dumbledore’s view, this was just another attempt by the Prussian-Polish Federation to boost the “Austrian threat theory” by exaggerating Austria’s strength.

The documents compared France and Austria’s various metrics, showing Austria to hold an overwhelming advantage. After skimming a few sets of numbers, Dumbledore lost interest.

With the characteristic pride of the French, he didn’t believe the data. The French government had gathered intelligence on Austria as well, concluding that the two nations were evenly matched in overall strength, with France even having a slight edge.

Friedman felt a sinking sensation, wondering if the data was too exaggerated and had tipped Dumbledore off.

In this era without satellites or the internet, even gathering data on one’s own country was a monumental task, requiring extensive manpower and resources.

As for intelligence on other nations, it was even more challenging. Sending people to gather detailed statistics would likely result in them being treated as spies before they could even begin.

Typically, such information is gathered by estimating the number of incoming and outgoing ships, studying regional economic newspapers, or reviewing annual reports published by major corporations. They relied on these publicly available sources.

Economists then analyze the data to arrive at conclusions that are, at best, “rough approximations.” Errors are inevitable, and different economists often reach varying conclusions.

Whether out of national pride or political necessity, the French would never allow a conclusion suggesting they were inferior to Austria.

Dumbledore, as the Foreign Minister, didn’t need to concern himself with the details. Reviewing high-level, polished reports was enough for him. The specifics were someone else’s problem.

After a brief pause, Geoffrey Friedman sighed and said, “Fine, let’s set these reports aside. The European continent can only have one dominant power, and Austria is the greatest rival to your country’s continental supremacy.”

Dumbledore nodded in agreement.

Friedman continued, “In recent years, the Austrians have been developing the Balkans and growing rapidly. Their population in Europe alone is nearly 80 million, and their total economic output has surpassed even Britain’s, making them the world’s largest economy.

These figures are widely recognized, so I assume you won’t dispute them. Since 1870, the Austrian government has expanded its military three times. Their combined land and naval forces now total 714,000 personnel, including 608,000 in the army alone.

No European nation, apart from Russia, can match this standing army. From what I know, your country’s standing army only amounts to 476,000.

Moreover, Austria has an enormous reserve force. While the exact numbers are unclear, it’s known that over a million people undergo reserve training each year.

Who is this vast military force meant to confront? Other than your nation, I can’t think of anyone else Austria would take so seriously.

If you don’t prepare adequately, when Austria is fully ready, your nation may face the invasion of millions of enemy troops.”

Dumbledore shook his head and said, “Foreign Minister, let’s not twist the facts. Does a group of laborers now count as an army? If war truly breaks out, France has more than enough strength to defeat any enemy.

Modern warfare isn’t won by sheer numbers alone. If it were about numbers, Russia has the largest army. Does that mean your country is ready to concede defeat?

As for the Austrian threat, that is a domestic matter for France and doesn’t require your concern. If you have the energy, I suggest you focus on dealing with the Russians!”

After a brief pause, Dumbledore added, “Let me remind you, if we’re discussing threats, your country is also a potential rival to France, even more so than Austria. The world is already divided. Britain, France, and Austria can form an alliance because we are all stakeholders in maintaining the status quo.”

There was no doubt Dumbledore was deeply dissatisfied with Geoffrey Friedman’s overreach, which prompted him to issue a direct warning.

Even if Austria posed a significant threat, it was up to the French government to recognize and address it. Friedman’s remarks were clearly aimed at provoking conflict between France and Austria.

As France’s Foreign Minister, Dumbledore could not tolerate being used so blatantly.

…

On the way back to the embassy, noticing Geoffrey Friedman’s persistent worry, Vice Envoy Lieutenant General McAfee tried to comfort him, saying, “Geoffrey, don’t be disheartened. You’ve done very well. The failure of this mission is mainly because we misjudged the French.”

Geoffrey Friedman shook his head and replied, “The mission hasn’t failed. Dumbledore has already accepted our perspective.”

Seeing McAfee’s confusion, Friedman explained, “Don’t be surprised. If we hadn’t struck a nerve with the French, Dumbledore wouldn’t have lost his composure.

His final warning, while factual, was something that had never been openly acknowledged before. Now that he’s brought it up, it seems that the relationship among Britain, France, and Austria is even worse than we initially thought.”

Still puzzled, McAfee asked directly, “Geoffrey, if our plan worked, then why are you still…”

Geoffrey Friedman replied with a bitter smile, “Because what Dumbledore said is true. Britain, France, and Austria all want to prevent the rise of any new great power that would share their spoils. Whether it’s the Russians or us, it’s the same.

We’re already at the peak of what we can achieve. Even if we defeat the Russians, the gains we can make will be limited. To advance further, we’ll have to face the combined suppression of Britain, France, and Austria. Our future looks grim.”

Friedman had come to a sobering realization. While there were significant conflicts among Britain, France, and Austria, their interests aligned when it came to suppressing emerging powers.

The Prussian-Polish Federation was no longer a small country. If they defeated the Russians again, they would replace Russia’s position in Europe and that would draw the unified opposition of the existing great powers.

Britain, France, and Austria were unwilling to see the emergence of a newly resurgent Russia, which meant that the Prussian-Polish Federation’s good days would end after the war.

Unless the international situation changed or the Anglo-Franco-Austrian alliance collapsed, the Federation would forever have to live in the shadow of these three major powers.

If the Prussian government hadn’t been so preoccupied, they would have seen this clearly long ago. However, their focus had always been on defeating the Russians, with little thought given to what might happen after the war.

Deep down, a voice in Geoffrey Friedman’s mind kept telling him that ending the conflict between Prussia-Poland and Russia would be the best solution. War would only benefit a third party.

But thinking it was one thing, saying it aloud was entirely out of the question. The Prussian-Polish Federation’s 800,000 square kilometers of territory was mostly taken from Russia. How could they possibly stop now?

Even if the Prussian government were willing to reconcile, the Russian government would never agree. How could the Russians maintain their status as a great power without suppressing the Federation?

Even though both sides knew continuing the war would harm them, neither could stop.

The Junker aristocracy wanted to gain more benefits, while the Russians sought revenge. The clash of interests was irreconcilable.

Lieutenant General McAfee smiled slightly and said, “Geoffrey, you’re overthinking it. If suppression comes, it will be after we’ve defeated the Russians. Who knows what the future holds?

I don’t believe the Anglo-Franco-Austrian alliance can last forever. As soon as contradictions emerge among the three powers, we’ll have our chance.

The world has already been divided, and there are no colonies left for us. If that’s the case, then we might as well abandon the idea altogether. If Britain, France, and Austria are worried we’ll replace Russia, we’ll prove them wrong.”

In this era, overseas colonies symbolized wealth, and naturally, everyone wanted a piece of the pie. Unfortunately, the Prussian government’s attempts had ended in failure.

It became clear that a navy couldn’t be built overnight, and the Junker aristocracy, being “landlubbers,” couldn’t handle maritime ventures.

After the navy was decisively beaten by Denmark in the Baltic Sea, Prussia gave up its unrealistic dreams of naval dominance.

As a staunch proponent of land power, Lieutenant General McAfee no longer fantasized about acquiring colonies. Instead, he saw relentlessly targeting the Russians as the best option.

Territorial expansion on the European continent had never been smooth sailing. The Junker aristocracy’s strategy was to gradually chip away at Russian lands, lacking the bold ambition to dominate the continent seen in the original timeline.

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